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Post by rodney on Nov 5, 2009 12:39:48 GMT -5
Hi Gian, At www.bermuda-triangle.org/html/myths___facts.html you state: "NTSB database searches reveal that in the last decade only a handful of aircraft disappearances have occurred off New England while over 30 have happened in the Triangle. These are American statistics only, and do not reflect other nationalities. "Then there are those who claim the disparity is due to the Triangle’s greater amount of traffic. In reality, the 1st Coast Guard district answers about just as many calls for assistance as the 7th, but the number of disappearances is still remarkably different." Some folks on the Randi Forum are questioning what the relative numbers are in terms of traffic and disappearances. Can you shed any more light on this issue? Thanks.
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Post by Gian on Nov 5, 2009 21:07:55 GMT -5
Can you clarify that a little more? Do you mean Coast Guard districts compared? Or are you speaking more globally?
G
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Post by rodney on Nov 6, 2009 9:03:42 GMT -5
Can you clarify that a little more? Do you mean Coast Guard districts compared? Or are you speaking more globally? G Either Coast Guard districts or more globally. For example, when you say that "the 1st Coast Guard district answers about just as many calls for assistance as the 7th, but the number of disappearances is still remarkably different", do you have any statistics? Also, is there any insurance rate information at all regarding different ocean areas?
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cadet
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Post by cadet on Nov 6, 2009 22:55:28 GMT -5
Hi Gian and Rodney. I would like to write an article on primary and secondary research tools used to investigate the facts/disappearances in the Bermuda Triangle. There probably isn't enough paper or computer memory to list all the tools. I'm mainly interested in the tools used in the past 65 years as technology becomes more advanced. Maybe either of you can recommend websites/books?? I'd appreciate any assistance you can give me. Thanks---Cadet
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cadet
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Post by cadet on Nov 7, 2009 13:04:17 GMT -5
If you begin the research from land, air or sea, what tools would you start/continue with? Cadet
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Post by rodney on Nov 7, 2009 19:18:15 GMT -5
If you begin the research from land, air or sea, what tools would you start/continue with? Cadet Gian is the expert, but I think the biggest thing to start with is to objectively examine all the facts surrounding each disappearance. If you approach a disappearance with a bias the way Larry Kusche did ("a storm caused it"), you will often place the disappearance far away from where it actually occurred. I think it's likely that there are multiple causes of the disappearances, so you don't want to jump to conclusions about the cause of a particular disappearance.
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cadet
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Post by cadet on Nov 7, 2009 20:35:22 GMT -5
Rodney--Thanks for your input. That's why I felt comfortable asking you and Gian. If there is anything else you feel would help, let me know. Cadet
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Post by Gian on Nov 12, 2009 18:39:46 GMT -5
Sorry, I've been slammed lately. I am digging through my boxes to retrieve the published Coast Guard data. When I find it I will scan the pages. It will be easier that way. Each year the CG publishes stats by district. For my book and website I used this as one in comparison to NTSB data readouts and for CG databases searches.
Gimme a little time. I'll also try and get the address where you can order one yearly. I haven't done so for a few years since there is nothing but stats, no real details.
Gian
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cadet
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Post by cadet on Nov 14, 2009 18:55:24 GMT -5
Gian--Thanks for the feedback. I know all this takes time so when you get it together, just let me know here or I can supply my personal e-mail if that would be easier. I appreciate all the effort you're putting into this. cadet
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Post by greglittle on Nov 29, 2009 20:12:00 GMT -5
Gian: I have heard so many people state that the Bermuda Triangle area statistically has no more disappearances than other areas...but I have never seen or heard of a single statistical study regarding this. Have you ever seen or heard of an actual study that evaluated the relative level of accidents/disappearances over one body of water or land and compared it to another? Thanks, Dr Greg Little
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Post by Gian on Dec 2, 2009 22:16:27 GMT -5
Yes, I have. I did it between districts and have some of it in my book. Coast Guard searches at 7th CGD Miami can help you as well, plus NTSB database searches.
Did the Nat. Geo. ever get on the air? They had me look at some of the wreckage you brought up (The DC-3).
Cadet, I'm still going through boxes. I found 1993's published stats and will scan and post pages so you can see. Then I'll get the contact for you to order your own recent ones.
Cheers,
Gian
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cadet
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Post by cadet on Dec 4, 2009 22:16:55 GMT -5
Gian--Thanks so much for the extra effort you're putting into this. I wait anxiously to see what you scan and post.
Cadet
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Post by Gian on Dec 7, 2009 13:08:02 GMT -5
I found something even better. The Coast Guard did an extract for me (which I had forgotten about) back in 1996. See the links below. This is for all recreational vessels posted missing between 1990 and 1995 in the districts tht cover the Triangle. www.cwo.com/~dom/CGstats90-95.jpgwww.cwo.com/~dom/CGstats90-95-2.jpgStats are done each year through Commandant Publication with the Department of Transport. You would want SAR Statistics. The Commandant's Office in washington DC would be able to refer you to who retails their publications now. (202) 267-1054 In comparing District Stats in this publication, you will notice some SAR eye-openers. Taking 1993's (which is so far all I have found), let's compare 2nd Coast Guard District and 17th (not the 7th yet). For that Fiscal Year total number of cases were 1,384, with 1,890 sorties. 4,350 persons were assisted. For that same year, the 17th Coast Guard District stats were 1,173 cases; total number of search sorties 2,146; persons assisted 1,956. The differences are not that appreciative. They reflect the amount of traffic and SAR calls for assistence. Both districts are not that populous, however. But in taking 1st District (New England) and 7th (Triangle) were are overwhelmed at the amount of traffic and trouble encountered in both—tumultuous New England weather and the Triangle's far oceans and tropic destinations. For 1993 total number of cases 1st District, 9,163; sorties 14,266; persons assisted 22,927; For the Triangle (7th District) they are 10,220; sorties 17, 480; persons assisted 20,912. However, when asking for extracts for missing vessels or in searching the Database of the NTSB, one sees the disparity in number of disappearances. The 7th District (Triangle) doesn't really stand out inordinantly from other districts in mishaps and calls for assistance (it's about 1,000 more than New England), but disappearances remain noticeably higher in proportation. Search NTSB database for 1990-1999 and compare missing aircraft stats. Contact 7th District HQ, Miami, and they might do a database search there for free (once), but they might charge upwards of a couple hundred bucks. Gian
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Post by greglittle on Dec 7, 2009 16:01:07 GMT -5
Thanks for this...
First, yes the Nat Geo show aired, but I have seen only 10 minutes of it, however, it was extremely well done. (I don't have a copy of it.) They took the parts we recovered to the UK and actually made matches to them on a DC-3, a sister plane to the 1948 DC3 disappearance. It was actually amazing as they held the recovered parts right next to the installed duplicates...all the numbers matched perfectly and the 1948 stamped part was a replacement. Their conclusion is that it was probably NC-16002. Because of the location it is completely understandable why it hadn't been found before and also why nothing was ever recovered from it. At some point we may go back and get an engine number as we did find one of them. But I can't say with absolute certainty that this was that plane. Oddly, we found the planes' batteries, which played a role in the story. We also have 4-5 other parts of various planes we found and several ID plates from parts. We have found 22 planes to date. We do know for certain that we found the tail section of of the formerly "disappeared" 1966 Cessna 172-H — N-1483F...it was found on the shore of west Andros. We got a lot of film and photos of it before locals dragged it into water again to use as a fishing spot trap.
The question about a statistical study wasn't about raw numbers. It refers to whether or not a statistically higher number of planes/boats disappear in the BT area as compared to other areas. That would take a study using something like an ANOVA (analysis of variance) or perhaps even something simple like a chi square analysis. I do believe there are more strange disappearaces in the BT area, but other than obvious pilot "error" and other things I can't say why. I will say that we have found that satellite phones do not work in the area from Bimini to Andros, and we once had 4 different satellite phones in our team. Not one could pick up a signal and it actually caused a series of problems for the team. WE have also heard several stories from locals about odd things that happen, and I can add that there have been quite a few disappearances of local fishermen that never make the news. Locally, these things are just accepted and nothing is ever done.
Thanks again, Greg
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Post by greglittle on Dec 7, 2009 16:58:34 GMT -5
I forgot to mention that we were using side-scan radar off extreme North Andros on April 10, 2007 when a Piper went down off the Berry Islands, just to the NE of where we were. We saw the lone search plane that was sent out to look for any remains of the plane. They buzzed us at 200-feet or so several times. Later we spoke to a pilot at the closest airport who said he was there when the request for a search plane came in and also when the plane returned. Not a trace was found, but the tongue of the Ocean is really rough and deep there.
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